The Dot-Com Bubble Unmasked: How HMMs Detect Euphoria, Crash, and Recovery
Nov 4, 2025 · 12 min read · hmm dotcom-bubble market-regimes case-study regime-detection sector-divergence euphoria-detection tech-sector nasdaq risk-management open-source QQQ MSFT INTC CSCO AMZN SPY YHOO ·The Story of Irrational Exuberance At the NASDAQ peak on March 10, 2000, our Hidden Markov Model revealed a striking divergence: Amazon showed 85.2% bearish confidence while Microsoft peaked at 98.3% bullish. This stark regime divergence between speculative dot-coms and profitable technology companies foreshadowed …
Read MoreConfidence as a Leading Indicator: HMM Regime Detection During the COVID-19 Crash
Oct 30, 2025 · 16 min read · hmm covid-19 market-regimes case-study confidence-signals risk-management open-source QQQ CCL WMT AMZN DIS INTC ·The Signal That Came Too Early On January 27, 2020, while Carnival Cruise Lines stock traded at 44.75 — still near its high — our 3-state Hidden Markov Model assigned it a 99.99% confidence to “Crisis ” Regime . QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 ETF, simultaneously received a 99.95% Bearish confidence rating at 210.72, well before …
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