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  • Confidence as a Leading Indicator: HMM Regime Detection During the COVID-19 Crash

    calendar Oct 30, 2025 · 16 min read · hmm covid-19 market-regimes case-study confidence-signals risk-management open-source QQQ CCL WMT AMZN DIS INTC  ·
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    The Signal That Came Too Early On January 27, 2020, while Carnival Cruise Lines stock traded at 44.75 — still near its high — our 3-state Hidden Markov Model assigned it a 99.99% confidence to “Crisis ” Regime . QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 ETF, simultaneously received a 99.95% Bearish confidence rating at 210.72, well before …


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This website provides educational and informational content only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Hidden Regime - Educational Content Only, Not Financial Advice

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