I am pleased to announce the release of v1.0.0 of the hidden-regime Python module. GitHub PyPI Changelog All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file. The format is based on Keep a Changelog, and this project adheres to Semantic Versioning. [1.0.0] - 2025-09-30 Added Complete Documentation …

Stochastic Modeling of Market Dynamics and the Efficient Market Hypothesis If the Efficient Market Hypothesis holds, then what hope do we have for using technical analysis? I. Introduction: The Dialectic of Efficiency and Predictability I.A. Contextualizing the Conflict Modern financial economics operates under a …

HMM Algorithms: Viterbi and Baum-Welch In our article on HMMs we discussed what Hidden Markov Models are. In this article, we’ll discuss how you train them based on observations. The key concepts are the Viterbi algorithm and the Baum-Welch algorithm . This article will assume some familiarity with statistics, so …

A Comprehensive Guide to Hidden Markov Models: Uncovering the Unseen Have you ever tried to guess what’s happening behind the scenes by just looking at the clues? Imagine you have a friend whose mood seems to change randomly. One day they are happy, the next they are sad, and the day after that they are just neutral. …

Markets don’t just move randomly. Beneath the surface noise, financial markets operate in distinct behavioral regimes - periods of sustained bull runs, defensive bear markets, sideways consolidation, and crisis conditions. Each regime has different statistical properties, different risk characteristics, and requires …